We need your help to make our project a success! Our Jacobs Technology Inc. Agent-Based and Complex Systems (ABC) groupi in Ann Arbor, Michigan, has won a project with the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA) as part of the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program. Our “INterrelated FOrecasts Reflecting Models behind Experts' Decisions” (INFORMED) project seeks ways to aggregate forecasts from multiple knowledgeable subjects to yield a group forecast that is more accurate than any individual. We are developing novel concepts that go well beyond the traditional aggregation or Delphi methods you may be familiar with. The forecasts deal with the kinds of topics about which you probably have some knowledge and interest: politics, economics, the development of science and technology, social events, and public health issues.
This project was recently mentioned as the most exciting technology IARPA is working on! Be part of it!
We need your help and participation to assure the success of this project. So we are asking you to participate and share your knowledge on relevant world and U.S. issues. We need as many people as possible to collect sufficient data to develop and prove our forecasting methodology. Besides that, you will have fun testing your knowledge and observing how well we (you) perform in predicting real world events.