Replication Markets (RM) invites you to help us predict outcomes of 3,000 social and behavioral science experiments over the next year. We actively seek citizen scientists and scholars with different voices and perspectives to create a wise and diverse crowd, and hope you will join us. We invite you – your students, and any other interested parties – to join our crowdsourced prediction platform. By mid-2020 we will rate the replicability of claims from more than 60 academic journals. The claims were selected by an independent team that will also randomly choose about 200 for testing (replication). • RM’s forecasters bet on the chance that a claim will replicate and may adjust their assessment after reading the original paper and discussing results with other players. Previous replication studies have demonstrated prediction accuracy of about 75% with these methods. • RM’s findings will contribute to the wider body of scientific knowledge with a high-quality dataset of claim reliabilities, comparisons of several crowd aggregation methods, and insights about predicting replication. Anonymized data from RM will be open-sourced to train artificial intelligence models and speed future ratings of research claims. • RM’s citizen scientists predict experimental results in a play-money market with real payouts totaling over $100K*. Payouts will be distributed among the most accurate of its anticipated 500 forecasters. There is no cost to play the Replication Markets. Our project needs forecasters like you with knowledge, insight, and expertise in fields across the social and behavioral sciences. Please share this invitation with colleagues, students, and others who might be interested in participating.
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